Red State: Horserace for July 21, 2011

We are bringing this site back to life with an analysis of the Presidential Republican Primary candidates that is now featured on Red State by Erick Erickson.  We will continue to spotlight what candidates are doing in their run for President along with starting to track announced candidates for the US Senate like Ted Cruz from Texas.  We believe that 2012 is going to be an even better Republican year as we take the Senate back along with the White House.  Good analysis by Erickson and we have added our own comments in red to each candidate.

Horserace for July 21, 2011

Posted by Erick Erickson

Thursday, July 21st at 12:36PM EDT

For all intents and purposes, from here on out, we have to presume Rick Perry is a candidate for the Presidency of the United States until he declares otherwise. I think it is safe to conclude he’s in.

As Perry rises, Pawlenty falls as does Bachmann. Cain implodes. Romney stagnates. And then there’s the funny tale of Jon Huntsman. It kind of makes me chuckle. There’s a lot to get into this week in the horserace for the White House.

Michele Bachmann

Michele Bachmann is down again this week.
Let’s be clear. I don’t think the headache story is a big deal. I don’t think it really hurts Bachmann. The story that hurts Bachmann though is that some of her former staffers are a brood of vipers out to get her. I have heard many horror stories myself, but most of what we’re getting now is designed specifically to undermine Bachmann as she continues to gain major momentum. She raised $2 million in a day and that spooked a lot of people.

What we are seeing is what I predicted. The pile on has begun. Given her press operations thus far, I think Bachmann is going to have a tough time staying ahead.

More troubling for Bachmann, she signed the cut, cap, and balance pledge then voted against the related legislation. A number of outside conservative groups who were moving her way now tell me they have pulled back. Her rationale for voting against Cut, Cap, and Balance does not compute after signing the pledge.

Backmann followed the lead of Ron Paul who did not sign the pledge -- she attends his weekly meetings and if anyone paid attention to her questioning to the Fed Chair, it was right out of the Paul playbook.  As to her aides, she has gone through more Chiefs of Staff and aides while in Congress in two plus terms then some go through in ten years which says something about her managing style.  She is totally disorganized and eventually seeing mail stack up would get to anyone.  As for the headaches, no one with that kind of migraine should have even considered running for President when you know you are incapacitated at times.  There is also a problem with her husbands lack of credentials even though he calls himself doctor.

Herman Cain

Herman Cain could have been an awesome candidate. He is a turn around artist. You eat at Burger King because Herman Cain brought it back from the brink. Same with Godfathers. He could have been the outsider’s Mitt Romney with a real record of job growth.

Instead, Cain became the guy who hates Muslims. And now that’s all the press wants to talk about. I don’t know if Cain is just not listening to his advisers or if his advisers are misleading him. But I think the first step for him to turn around his campaign is to fire Mark Block, his top adviser. He needs a dramatic overhaul to prove he is serious and not fringe.

A lot of variables outside of Herman’s control must break his way for him to be viable. He can influence them, but not control them. Right now, they are breaking against him in part because of the influence he is exerting on the variables. He has no path to victory and no more shot at even the Vice Presidency as things are going right now.

The day Herman Cain said he wouldn't sign a bill over 3 or 4 pages showed a total lack of understand of the Office of President and how government works.  Anyone who has followed government knows that budget and appropriation bills are huge as they have to cover everything or an agency won't be able to buy something.  His attacks on Muslims have been over the top and even if people agree with him, most don't want to see that out of a President because it sets us up for another attack and paints all Muslims with the same paintbrush.

Newt Gingrich

Newt Gingrich’s campaign is over. He came out against the McConnell “Pontius Pilate Act”, but was not able to get traction from it. I’m writing off Gingrich’s campaign. When the Speaker of the House who led the GOP through the last major government shutdown is unable to get media attention as Washington is now on the verge of a shutdown, he’s yesterday’s news.

We honestly think he is still in the race as a holding place for Governor Perry.  It is no secret the two are good friends and Newt even wrote the  foreward for the Governor's book, "Fed Up."  Newt's biggest problem is he is a policy wonk which doesn't translate to a lot of support.  Not to mention he traveled and worked with Hillary and Pelosi -- not something that the vast majority of Republicans will overlook.

Jon Huntsman

Jon Huntsman peaked on the day in January Newsweek reported he might be running. Even the day he announced got less press. He has been unable to make headway. Yes, there is plenty of time, but the oxygen has been sucked out of the room.

Even the media that turned him into a darling has started ignoring him. Foreign policy is not the major issue. His backing Obama’s stimulus in 2009 hurts him with the base. Heck, he’s even losing Utah — a state in which he served two terms as Governor.

He can turn it around, but it will be very hard to do. And just today comes word his campaign manager is out. Things are not looking good. Whew!

One question:  Why is he running as a Republican after the 2008 when it seems he was an admirer of Obama and then went to China as the US Ambassador after resigning as Governor of Utah.  No way would he have received that appointment if he had not been in Obama's corner.  Obama doesn't reward anyone who was against him in 2008 because you have to remember Obama saying "I WON!" which set the stage for the problems we are in today along with some of his lackluster appointees not to mention his own short comings as the inexperienced President.

Thaddeus McCotter

I see no reason to keep McCotter on this list unless something changes in the next week.

Another why is he running?

Sarah Palin

Last week I reported that people close to Palin are beginning to change their mind and think she might run. Thus far, there have been no signs that she actually is running and I maintain that she is not going to run. I think Rick Perry getting in keeps Palin out, unless she’s getting in to run interference for Perry.

With her high negative numbers would be foolish to get in the race after saying if the right conservative got in the race she wouldn't run.  Don't think she will run and will endorse Rick Perry.

Ron Paul

Ron Paul will not be the nominee. However, a lot of conservatives are giving Paul, unlike Bachmann, a pass on opposing Cut, Cap, and Balance because he did not sign the CCB pledge and previously pledged to never raise the debt ceiling. It will not, however, help him.

Not going to win and has less support today than in 2008 which was almost nil.

Tim Pawlenty

With Rick Perry presumably getting in, I think the game is almost over for Pawlenty. He did everything right. His polling is headed in the right direction. He has gotten key support. But the slow and steady pace is about to get overshadowed.

However, we should be mindful that Pawlenty is boots on the ground in Iowa and is largely camped out there. He could surprise in a big way and we shouldn’t count him out. It’s great to have a national perspective on this, but we shouldn’t be ignorant of what is happening on the ground. And in Iowa, folks tell me that Pawlenty is being seen plenty. The same people, however, tell me they feel like the oxygen is being sucked out of the room by Bachmann and the anticipation of a Perry run.

Gov Pawlenty has not caught fire like I thought he would.  Will someone please tell me why he hired someone from Romney's campaign in 2008?  He has some great ideas but he does not generate the enthusiasm among a lot of people.  I could support him for President and believe he would be a very good addition to the cabinet of the new President in 2012.

Rick Perry

From here on on, we treat Perry as a candidate. News reports say Perry is meeting with donors and meeting with briefers on national issues. He has a ready supply of funders at his call based on his very successful tenure as head of the Republican Governors Association.

When Perry gets in — it is no longer an if in my book — Bachmann goes down in the polls, Pawlenty’s struggles increase, Gingrich gets out, and Cain is toast. But polling also shows Perry takes votes from Mitt Romney, which must have Governor Romney troubled.

Perry will, immediately upon entry, be the subject of withering attacks he’ll have to survive. I suspect he’ll be able to do it.

Rick Perry has been through the rough and tumble Texas polical scene where they have thrown everything but the kitchen sink and in 2008 some of the backers of Kay Bailey did just that at the request of Bush 41 and his band of KB supporters with Karl Rove getting involved and Mitt Romney endorsing KB.  Can tell Mr. Romney one thing -- Rick Perry will never forget that endorsement of Romney and neither will his supporters.


Perry brings enthusiasm to the campaign that has been missing since it first started way too soon.  The former Aggie yell leader is full of energy and has a family that backs him 100%.  The minute Rick Perry announces excitement will hit the campaign trail.  It will be the 800 lb gorilla land in the race ready to hit the ground running. 


Obama will have an opponent that won't lay down and will confront him on the many issues that have affected not only Texas but a lot of states in Middle America.  Oil and gas people are waiting to write those checks to the Governor in big numbers the way Obama has been after oil and gas.  TX and OK have been in the target zone for the EPA for so long and it has gotten worse under Obama.  This Oklahoman and former resident of Texas is proud to support Rick Perry as are many others I know.

Mitt Romney

The most important issue of the day is the debt ceiling and Mitt Romney is not leading on it as the presumed frontrunner for the GOP. He has played it too safe and refused to be out there aggressively. While Rick Perry is authoring op-eds with Nikki Haley on cut, cap, and balance, Mitt Romney is largely crickets.

Having played it too safe and held on to a lead, I think Romney is going to get hurt. He has a definitely ceiling in support and as other candidates start dropping out, I think they’ll gravitate to others, not Romney.

Not only do I not support Romney, but would have a hard time voting for him as his policies are too liberal and he is too attached to his church no matter what he says.  We have seen first hand how the Church influences elected officials -- no thanks.  His endorsement of Kay Bailey in the 2008 Governor's race makes him a non-starter for me on top of everything else.  Also he was the MA Governor and after living in that state for the longest nine months of my life while my husband was on an Industry Assignment for the Air Force, I would never vote for anyone who was Governor of MA.

Rick Santorum

This will be Rick Santorum’s last appearance in the Horserace. I now consider him a former candidate. 

We agree 100% -- he never caught on as a candidate.

Source:  Red State

George Will: Rick Perry: A Texan’s ‘exceptionalism’

On the while this is a very positive article by George Will but we would be remiss if we didn't point out a few things that are not quite right.  Rick was raised a Methodist and the family are members of a Methodist Church in Austin.  He attends a church at times that is closer to the rental house they are living in while the Governor's Mansion is renovated from the fire.   That church is one of the non-denominational mega churches that has sprung up around the Country.  There are a lot of people that have been put off over the years by the mainstream churches as they have trended farther left.  To say that Governor Perry is an evangelical is stretching it a wee bit.

Perry says that as governor, he regularly attends numerous churches to speak. As for why he ultimately chooses to go to one place and not another, he said he administers a simple test. 

"If I remember on Wednesday what the message was on Sunday, it was a good message," Perry said.

Would bet a lot of people who go to church could relate to that last statement.   There are times while listening to a sermon you wonder what a pastor is talking about as they ramble on and on.  We had a Lutheran Church in the town I grew up where the pastor said if it cannot be said in 20 minutes, it is not worth saying and had his wife time his sermons who would give him a heads up when he was approaching 20 minutes.  His messages were ones you did remember.

Would like someone to explain this paragraph to me because most of it makes little sense to people outside the beltway:

 Mitt Romney, the Republican front-runner, might be easier to elect than to nominate. The reverse might be true of Perry. Is he a wine that will not travel? To win the White House, a Republican must be competitive among independents, including women, in places like Montgomery County outside Philadelphia. Perry — his accent, his Westerner’s body language, those boots — is proof that, in spite of the culture’s homogenizing forces, regional differences remain remarkably durable. But so, too, do regional antipathies, some of which have intensified as voters have become more polarized, partly because of a Texas governor who became president.

Speaking for a lot of us in Middle America, Mitt Romney is not someone we want to see as President and after his gaffe in Florida don't think we are alone.  Saying that "I am unemployed" was not a joke and if I was unemployed I would be highly insulted to think a millionaire considers himself unemployed.  All he wants to do is run for President or he could go back to work any day he chooses and if he chose not to work, he has plenty of money not to worry.  It shows that Romney is totally out of touch with grassroots America.

Another thing about the paragraph above that bothers me is why would a Republican candidate worry about what women outside Philadelphia think of our candidate.  When was the last time we could count Pennsylvania as a reliable red state?  Ronald Reagan?  It is what Middle America including Ohio and the south think of Gov Perry and he gets a huge thumbs up from us.

Governor Perry was very well received in NYC by the Republicans but then that doesn't fit the narrative that a Texan cannot win the Presidency again.  Why not?   Would rather have the plain spoken Texan any day than someone who changes their views to get elected.

Rick Perry: A Texan’s ‘exceptionalism’By George F. Will, Published: June 24San Antonio 

In the 1850s, on the steps of the Waco courthouse, Wallace Jefferson’s great-great-great-grandfather was sold. Today, Jefferson is chief justice of Texas’s Supreme Court. The governor who nominated him also nominated the state’s first Latina justice. Rick Perry, 61, the longest-serving governor in Texas history and, in his 11th year, currently the nation’s senior governor, says these nominations are two of his proudest accomplishments. 

French cuffs and cowboy boots are, like sauerkraut ice cream, an eclectic combination, but Perry, who wears both, is a potentially potent candidate for the Republican presidential nomination because his political creed is uneclectic, matching that of the Republican nominating electorate. He was a “10th Amendment conservative” (“The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the states, are reserved to the states respectively, or to the people”) before the Tea Party appeared. And before Barack Obama’s statism — especially Obamacare’s individual mandate — catalyzed concern for the American project of limited government. 

Social issues, especially abortion, are gateways to the Republican nominating electorate: In today’s climate of economic fear, a candidate’s positions on social issues will not be decisive with his electorate — but they can be disqualifying. Perry — an evangelical Christian, like most Republican participants in Iowa’s caucuses and the South Carolina primary — emphatically qualifies. 

Pausing in his enjoyment of a hamburger the size of a hubcap, Perry, the Eagle Scout son of Democratic tenant farmers, says that he entered politics as a Democrat: “I never met a Republican until I was in the Air Force.” Perry’s father had been a B-17 tail gunner flying out of England in 1944. Perry, stationed abroad flying C-130 transports, became a captain and a believer in American exceptionalism. 

He matriculated into the culture wars in the riotous year of 1968. As the University of Texas at Austin was becoming a bastion of liberalism, Perry headed to Texas A&M, which was transitioning from an all-male military school but not from conservatism. He became a Republican in 1989 — “I made both parties happy” — at a younger age than Ronald Reagan did, and he has never lost an election. 

(snip) 

Between 2001 and last June, Texas — a right-to-work state that taxes neither personal income nor capital gains — added more jobs than the other 49 states combined. And since the recovery began two Junes ago, Texas has created 37 percent of America’s net new jobs. 

Excerpt:  Read More at the Washington Post

Senator Rubio: "We Must Save Medicare"

Senator Rubio is not afraid to speak the truth while Obama and the Democrats continue with their well known scare tactics to senior citizens.

Sen Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) Gives Republican Weekly Address -- Oil

Gov Rick Scott (R-FL) Email: Promises Made -- Promises Kept

We would like to tell Governor Rick Scott:  "Job Well Done!"   Most politicians make campaign promises during the heat of the campaign and the minute they take office they are put on the back burner.  Not Governor Scott as he hit the ground running and has never stopped.

Floridians can be extremely happy they elected Rick Scott because if they had elected Alex Sink instead of property tax reductions, they would have been looking at higher taxes to balance the budget.  No way would she be cutting state agencies or anything else as her plan was to increase taxes and grow services from the Government.

It shows what can happen when you elect a businessman to be the Governor instead of a career politician.   This gives us hope that Florida is going to return to Red State American in 2012 with no more votes in Central Florida by Mickey, Minnie, and the gang even though we love the characters.

Dear xxxxxx, I promised to get Florida back to work and turn our state around by cutting taxes, holding government accountable, reducing spending and expanding educational opportunities. Today with the help of the Legislature, I am proud to say that we are on our way to creating 700,000 new jobs for Florida. Under my leadership, we closed a more than $3 billion deficit and balanced the budget, while slashing overall spending by over $2 billion. We began reducing government spending by requiring government workers to contribute directly towards their own retirement, saving taxpayers over $1 billion. We will continue to reorganize government functions, reform the regulatory and rule-making processes, and optimize state agencies to focus on job growth and economic development. In addition, we expanded educational opportunities with passage of virtual education legislation and the expansion of charter schools. There will be more school choices for parents than ever before. I also signed the Student Success Act which rewards the best teachers through a merit pay system while eliminating tenure, allowing under-performing teachers to be more easily replaced. Most important, I kept my promise to reduce property taxes. With the Legislature's help, we will reduce the property tax burden on Florida taxpayers by $210 million. And we began phasing out the business income tax. Almost half of Florida's small businesses will no longer be burdened with this tax. It is through these reforms we are holding the government accountable to the most important person in the state, the taxpayer. With your continued support I will fight to make government more efficient and ensure a brighter future for Florida. Be sure to share our accomplishments here in Florida with your friends and family by encouraging them to check out my website or by sharing my page on Facebook. Regards, Governor Rick Scott

Roger Hedgecock: Donald Trump: The new Perot?

Some friends from San Diego first told me I would really enjoy listening to Roger Hedgecock's program and they were correct. Many times I have turned into his program on the net and never am disappointed.  This latest article from Hedgecock says what a lot of us have been thinking and what is driving the elitist, establishment Republicans up a wall.  Former President George HW Bush and his cronies who support Romney most likely are behind the pit bull, Rove who has gone way over the top with his attacks on Trump.  Unlike some others Rove has taken out, The Donald is fighting back!

For any one who doesn't know, Karl Rove got his start thanks to George HW Bush while he was the head of the RNC during the Nixon years and is still loyal. Bush 41 pushed Mitt Romney in 2008 and is once again pushing him for President. Why? Makes no sense unless it is the connection to his Dad. Romney does not go over well with a lot of the activists and grassroots. Most of us went to McCain instead of Romney which speaks volumes.

Donald Trump has tapped into the Republican grassroots community because unlike what so many of the GOP candidates are doing by being differential to Obama and his Administration, Trump is taking them on with their failed policies and Obama's secret records.

If I see one more political official say they know that Obama was born in Hawaii and let's move on, I am going to scream. First of all, how do they know where he was born as the Certificate of Live Birth is useless. At that time any Tom, Dick, or Harry could walk up to their local issuing place and give the details of when a child was born with zero proof and then fill out the birth announcement for the paper to go along so the birth would be announced. Hawaii was looking for citizens which is even more reason for Obama to provide the long form. 

Only the certified copy of the long form can be used to get a passport. Are these politicians afraid to admit that if Barack Obama the elder was the father that Obama doesn't meet the qualifications to be President from the rules in effect at that time he was born since his mother was 17?  Is there something on it Obama doesn't want people to see?  If that is the case, then have the Speaker of the House and his leadership team along with Pelosi (who has never seen it) and her leadership view the document and certify that Obama is qualified to have run for President.  Speaking of passports, did Obama have an American passport before he became a Senator?  Thanks to Bush 41 who sealed passport records, we cannot find that out either.

Can guarantee you that if any Republican wouldn't release their records, the Obama media would never stop demanding access to the records.  Look what happened to Pres GW Bush on his grades which he finally released. They never quit on his guard records actually reporting on phony records that were proved false but it didn't stop Dan Rather from continuing to say the documents were not correct but it didn't make them not true. HUH?

Donald Trump being willing to get out front of all of this has made a lot of us take notice as he is saying what we have been saying. He has a backbone and will say what needs to be said and has tapped into support of the grassroots who are tired of the elites deciding who to run as being witnessed right now as Rove and others try to take out Trump and it is not working.

Trump is as appalled at the waste and corruption riddling the Obama government as more and more Americans are. Trump has put his reputation on the line, betting that his saying what everyday Americans are thinking will help shape the 2012 debate, force politicians to address the fiscal emergency and maybe even propel him into the White House.

I don't know about the latter, but if Trump succeeds in speaking for an increasingly gloomy America and makes the 2012 election a real debate about solutions, he will have performed a patriot's duty and, like Perot, be honored by his countrymen for his sacrifice.

If Trump makes it to the White House, I'm sure critics will have plenty of fodder for columns like this one, but who else would you rather have as president negotiating for America? I'll take the author of "The Art of the Deal."

Roger Hedgecock is correct who he would rather have negotiating for America -- we agree with him the author, Donald Trump, who wrote "The Art of the Deal" because Trump will be a tough negotiator.

Donald Trump: The new Perot?
Roger Hedgecock
Posted: April 25, 2011
1:00 am Eastern

Donald Trump, like Ross Perot 20 years ago, is a rich, successful, supremely confident salesman and patriot intensely dissatisfied with the competence of the present ruling political elite of both parties.

Trump is speaking out and speaking truth to Obama power like no one else. Like Perot before him, he's used to speaking his mind in blunt terms. He's not beholden to anyone. He scares the ruling elite. To the establishment, Trump has gone rogue.

I've seen this movie before.

In 1992, rich outsider Ross Perot loudly voices dissatisfaction that mirrors widespread public concerns not addressed by existing politicians. Insiders panic, fearing the power of a rogue voice unbeholden to the usual agendas and rich enough to be heard.

Critics tear at "gaffes" ("Larry, they doctored the photo"), paranoia ("they tried to kill me"), past business practices (Didn't his business make millions computerizing Medicare?), charge "racism" ("you people") – anything to stop the public from believing and following the outsider.

But Perot seemed right about a lot of things in 1992 and seems more right today than ever.

His prediction about the ultimate insolvency of Medicare was spot on. His opposition to wars not declared by Congress found support then and certainly rings true four ruinous wars and 20 years later. His criticism of NAFTA and "free trade" sounded like evil protectionism in 1992, but sounds like prophesy to many American ears today. Perot's 1992 advocacy of a balanced federal budget brings moans of "if only we had followed that advice" today.

Blocked from the presidential nomination by either party in 1992, Perot sought third-party recognition as the Reform Party in all 50 states, got it, dropped out of the race at the peak of his popularity, dropped back in right before the election and still got nearly 20 percent of the vote – enough to defeat the incumbent and elect Clinton.

Remembering the Perot experience, I doubt the closed-shop mentality of the political class will allow Trump a fair fight for the Republican presidential nomination.

The insider's character assassination of Donald Trump is intensifying.

Can The Donald starring as The Donald in "The Donald" be serious? Isn't this just another stunt to flatter his considerable ego? Critics flacking for the insiders call Trump a "clown," a "birther," "ignorant," "crazy" in print and worse in private.

But the rising hysteria of the insiders is in direct proportion to Trump's exploding out of political nowhere to capture a significant following and the pole position in early presidential opinion surveys.

In 2011, a significant majority of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track, that a government-directed economic recovery funded with borrowed trillions is not working, that the Libya war-that-is-not-a-war is wrong on every level.

With persistent high unemployment, jobs fleeing overseas, constant war, government regulation, taxation and nanny state intrusions turning Americans off, Trump is the loudest voice telling us the Emperor has no clothes, no matter what the New York Times says.

When Trump points out that every country in the world except Obama's America is drilling for oil, gas, coal, gold, copper, etc, etc., to make money, create jobs and improve their citizens' standard of living, Americans are listening. Maybe to the Sierra Club it makes sense that we should not use the riches literally bubbling up under our feet, but to Trump and a majority of Americans, this is just plain nuts.

The Chinese are hacking our computers, threatening our aircraft carriers and undermining our economy. Not one American politician wants to talk about this.

Excerpt: Read more: Donald Trump: The new Perot?

For too long our elected officials at times have been very weak and deferential when talking to foreign leaders especially Obama. We loved it when George Bush stood on the ruins of the World Trade Center and told the terrorists:

“I can hear you! I hear you, the rest of the world hears you, and the people who knocked down these buildings will hear all of us soon!” George Bush at WTC site on September 14, 2001

Then he named the Axis of Evil in his speech following 9/11. What happened to that President who wasn't afraid to take on the world?

We need a President who is as tough as nails and stands up for America from day one to the last day of his term. We want a President who the rest of the world respects but fears. We are seeing daily what it is like to have a wimp for a President who only stands up to our allies like Great Britain and bends over for people who harbor our enemies along with our enemies. Obama has tried his best to get Chavez to really like him but Chavez does not respect a weak President and takes full advantage. Some negotiating team we have -- Obama and Hillary Clinton -- horrible combination.

Right now of all the people who have said they are considering running, only Donald Trump has the proven business and negotiating experience, with a backbone. The chattering class are being driven up a wall as they once again figured they could choose the next Republican nominee -- not going to happen this time. No more Bob Dole's or John McCain's period -- men who were rewarded by the establishment clearing the way for them to run for President.

This time the establishment is not going to move Donald Trump out of the way no matter what. Americans want a real leader who believes we are an Exceptional Country and no one is going to take advantage of us -- Donald Trump is the ONLY person we see that meets that criteria.

Nate Beeler: Sir Barack the Valiant