Florida Special Election for Congress

The very fact that Alex Sink came this close to winning in a Republican district in a special election should have the Republicans wondering what happened.  Instead yesterday I kept getting email from some Democrat groups all upset they didn't raise/spend enough money.  That wasn't the problem.   Neither was Obamacare.  If you want to point one finger, you look at ground game -- it is hard to flip a seat in a special election but more important then all the ads the Dems wanted to counter was the ground game -- the on one one -- getting people to turn out for a special election.   Personally think the margin being so thin bodes well for Democrats in 2014 but what do I know -- the media has spoken and anyone who has been around campaigns knows nothing as they parrot Republican talking point papers.   Now I am wonder if the media is lazy or stupid and not sure which yet but they are doing the American people a disservice with their shoddy reporting.

This snippet from the article at Politicususa says it all:

The media looked at a Democrat losing by two points in a district where Republicans have a built in 11 point advantage, and concluded that this was a devastating loss for Obamacare. The only way that anyone could reach such a conclusion is if they didn’t bother to look at the numbers, and instead repeated the Republican spin. A majority of voters in the district (50%-48%) said that Jolley’s hard line repeal position caused them to have serious doubts about him. 

David Jolley won even though his position on Obamacare was unpopular with voters.
The message for Democrats is that they need to do a better job with voter outreach in the district. DCCC Chairman Rep. Steve Israel is already encouraging Sink to run against Jolley again in November. Jolley only won the seat for the duration of the late Bill Young’s term. He will have to run for reelection this fall. Democrats suspect that the high profile Charlie Crist/Rick Scott gubernatorial contest will bring their voters out to the polls.
The reason lesson in FL-13 is that Republicans are gambling on the wrong strategy of running against Obamacare. The GOP can still only win elections in places where they have a clear registration advantage. As long as the electorate stays white and old, Republicans can win. If Florida Democrats turn out to vote this November, Rick Scott will be defeated, and Alex Sink will be elected to the House. 

Analysis of the Florida special election has been bungled so badly because many lazy media outlet would prefer to pass off Republican talking points as fact than do their own work. The media are absolutely wrong about why Alex Sink lost, but this is for the course for corporate media that wear their Republican bias on their sleeves. 

Read more at Politicususa

With the Crist/Scott race for Governor turnout is going to be much higher and agree chances of Sink wining are high.  She has already been campaigning in the district and now needs to double down and get a real ground game going.  Democrats need to quit worrying about if they are being outspent and concentrating getting people out to vote.  People get turned off by ads so do a few good ones to counter but don't run ad for ad.  The seat is winnable for the Democrats if they play it right and #1 issue is to quit worrying about is the 2016 election and Hillary Clinton.  Concentrate only on 2014 and any donors looking ahead to 2016 need their heads examined -- plenty of time for that.  Looking at it from the outside, it seems the split that happened in 2008 is still in the Democrat Party in some areas.  Time to set it aside and stop the grandstanding from the Clinton camp.

Scott Hits 50 In Latest Rasmussen Poll, Leads Sink By 6 Points Among Likely Voters

Rick Scott hitting 50% this close to the election is great news.  We expect those numbers to climb as more people come on board for Scott/Carroll who have a 7-7-7 Plan to grow the economy of Florida.

Democrats in Florida are not energized as witnessed by their turnout for the primaries, but then maybe Mickey Mouse and his friends have decided not to vote this year. Those were some of the voter registrations turned in by ACORN in Florida in 2008. Florida like so many states is heavily registered Democrat but trends Republican -- a leftover from the days when the conservatives were southern Democrats throughout the south. Some of then have never reregistered but still vote Republican in the general election for the most part.

This analysis of the primary is striking:

“Turnout tells one potential story: Republicans, despite a 750,000-voter disadvantage in registration compared to Democrats, brought far more people to the polls. In all, 1.25 million Republicans cast ballots in the Republican Governor’s race, while fewer than 909,000 Democrats voted in the Democratic Senate primary — even though both races were heated and close in the final weeks.” (Cave, Damien, “Behind the Florida Primary Surprises, Turnout Tells a Tale,” The New York Times, 8/25/10)

It is also a reflection of what we have been finding in other primary states. Republicans are energized this time and cannot wait to vote on November 2nd. An example of how the Democrats in Florida are depressed is the Democrat Unity Tour:

More Candidates Than Grassroots Show Up For Democrats “Unity Event” “In a major show of force, the Democratic primary winners held a unification rally at UCF and attracted — 300 people. I do believe there were more candidates than party faithful. Now, if they were preparing to fight the Battle of Thermopylae and the 300 attendees were Spartans, they’d be good to go. But in the battle against Marco Rubio and Rick Scott, I don’t think so.” (Thomas, Mike, “Democrats rally?” Orlando Sentinel, 8/30/10)

“The Dems obviously have an excitement deficit. I believe their earlier rally in Tampa had a similar turnout. So if you added up both rallies, and multiplied the attendance by three, you would get the number of port-o-lets at Glenn Beck’s rally.” (Thomas, Mike, “Democrats rally?” Orlando Sentinel, 8/30/10)

No wonder we heard little about the Democrat Unity Tour while the Scott/Carroll Unity Tour attracted people like Jeb Bush to the events around the State. Turnout was awesome as Republicans joined together to start their campaign to win on November 2nd. They understand that Alex Sink is way too liberal to govern Florida and the good old boy system in Tallahassee would multiply if she was elected. Floridians know they need someone as Governor who will make the tough decisions to get the State back on the right track and actually has a plan to grow the Florida economy. There is only one choice for Florida and that is Rick Scott and Jennifer Carroll who have a plan for Florida!

Scott Hits 50 In Latest Rasmussen Poll, Leads Sink By 6 Points Among Likely Voters

FORT LAUDERDALE, FL – In the latest Rasmussen Survey of likely voters out today, Republican gubernatorial nominee Rick Scott hit 50 percent and leads Obama liberal Alex Sink by 6 percent. The last Rasmussen poll on September 2 had Sink leading 48 to 47 percent when leaners were included. The other numbers in the survey are also bad news for Sink, with her favorability upside down. 46 percent of likely voters view former banker Alex Sink unfavorably while 45 percent have a favorable view, that’s a 20 point drop in her image from the September 2 Rasmussen poll. More troubling for Sink, Scott has a net favorable view among likely voters by a spread of 14 percent, 53 to 39 percent. That’s a ten point rise in his image since the September 2 Rasmussen poll. Scott also leads by a whopping 21 percent among the crucial swing voter group of unaffiliated likely voters.

Scott campaign spokesman Joe Kildea said, “With these new numbers showing support for Rick at 50 percent among likely voters it is clear that his message of economic growth and job creation is resonating with voters. Obama liberal Alex Sink is seen unfavorably by a plurality of voters because Florida voters reject her record of raising taxes, killing jobs, and mismanaging Florida’s pension fund. Voters are tired of ineptitude in Tallahassee and Rick will bring business experience and an honest plan to create 700,000 private sector jobs in the state.”

To see the results, please visit: Rasmussen

Background

Depressed Dems

“KING: Let's move over to Florida. Again, a midterm election Republican primary turnout in 2010 way up from 2006, the last midterm election four years ago, and Marco Rubio who had no real challenge in the Republican primary for Senate, well he received more votes, if you look at those numbers, than all of the votes cast in the Democratic primary for Senate. Republicans look at this, Paul, and they say that is proof that what you had, what the Democrats had in 2006 and 2008, giant intensity edge, turnout edge, people excited to vote that they have this time. BEGALA: And they do. I mean, the numbers don't lie. The -- right now, how many days did you say, 68 days -- KING: Sixty-nine days. BEGALA: Sixty-nine days out the intensity is definitely on the right.” (Begala, Paul, and King, John, “Primary Night Fallout,” CNN, 8/25/10)

Excerpt: Read more at Rick Scott for Florida.com